Posted by
Zorro on Tuesday, January 29, 2008 5:21:17 PM
I put this under campaigns and elections, but it's far bigger than that. I think the conservative movement is in serious trouble for the medium term. I have believed this for a long time, but it is only the recent events that inspire me to write it on this blog. First I'll discuss the long term.
First, demography is poised to destroy conservatism in a devastating triple threat. The baby boomers will start retiring, and will probably shift a little to the left in the process. Second, Mexican immigrants will most likely end up being pretty leftist. Finally, years of liberals running their own private indoctrination camps through the American education system have finally taken their toll and are churning out reliably liberal kids who will inevitably come of age. Not enough of them are conservatives and not enough of them will be mugged by reality to convert to conservatism. It is ultimately these three factors that threaten to sink conservatism for at least a couple decades.
Recent debates about the future of the Republican party only highlight this problem. Note that there is tremendous support among many conservatives for "moderate" positions, while the Democratic movement has actually shifted left. This is ultimately a reflection of a leftward lurch in the American populous.
By their fruits ye shall know them, and conservatism will survive in the long term because of its inherent superiority but those fruits will not bear fruit in America for 20 years. The only thing that might discourage a significant leftward shift for America is the bad fruits of leftism that may increasingly be harvested in Europe. In this sense, Europe could return the favor America did in liberating it from Nazism and Communism.